You Decide: Flopped Set of Nines -- Get All In on Flop or Wait?
In this week's episode, of the 'You Decide' series, we analyse another hand brought to you by our partner LearnWPT.
Read the scenario, answer to the question — and then check out if you are already thinking like a poker pro.
The Hand
In a $5/$10 no-limit hold'em cash game, a player limps from under the gun and it folds to another in middle position who raises.
The hijack and cutoff both call the raise, and you call as well from the button with 9♥9♣.
The blinds both fold, and the UTG player calls.
The flop comes 5♣9♦A♦. The UTG player checks, and the player in middle position who raised pre-flop bets.
Both the hijack and cutoff fold.
The action is on you…
A Word from the Pros
Given that the middle position player raised a UTG limper preflop and then continuation bet into four opponents on this ace-high board, the player's range is heavily skewed towards big AxXx hands plus perhaps K♦Q♦.
Hands such as AxKx, AxQx and AxJx really dominate the player's range.
As a default play, we should raise now in this hand.
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Our opponent is unlikely to fold much of that range given remaining stacks relative to the pot, plus a diamond on the turn often hurts our ability to win additional chips against one-pair hands.
Since a standard raise represents about half of the middle position player's remaining stack, we can move all-in instead of raising to a smaller amount.
Raising to a smaller amount is also a viable option, however moving all-in is our best default play.
If this flop was seen heads-up, our opponent could have many more bluffs in a c-betting range and we could often call this c-bet to allow the player to fire again on the turn.
However, given how well defined the middle position player's range is in this hand along with the fact that the player isn't likely to fold much of that range, we can just get the chips in now by jamming on the flop.
TL;DR: Moving all in is the best play.
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